Polls are to the modern political media as chickens were to the Romans who would slice one up, throw it’s entrails onto the floor then predict the future from the colour of the liver and the crinkles on the heart.
Fortunately for our contemporary punditocracy opinion polls are far less messy – but are they more reliable?
Take Allahpundit at Hot Air – he caresses the crosstabs and fondles the weightings then, just like a Roman seer, he divines the portents and pronounces the verdict of the gods. Other scribblers rush towards the forum and spread the word – X is down at 37%, Y is up at 41% while Z is only popular with bald headed bus drivers.
The strategists and consultants work their calculations in a frenzy and then panic or preen according to the positions of their clients in the pecking order. The political junkies give out whoops of joy or groans of discomfort as they see their favourites rise or fall..
And most of the population don’t even know it has happened because the nearest election is far in the future and they have other things on their mind
the vast majority of people polled will be those who pay attention to politics 2 weeks a year and all other information comes from soundbites and brief media reports, not by a regular interest in politics (non political junkies).
So it’s nice to know of someone else playing around with that idea in the matter of Sarah Palin. Her polling numbers are regularly produced as evidence of her unsuitability as a candidate for the Presidency in 2012. But Poll Insider is less interested in the entrails than the background of the chicken itself.
Sarah Palin is what I like to call “An Unknown Known.” While everyone knows who she is, opinions of her are mostly derived from media accounts of her, rather than by her own actions and words.
Moreover, oddly enough, until the campaigns begin in earnest, because she does not conform to the usual political stereotype she remains an unknown known.
The key thing to remember about polling is information changes minds quickly. Reality is, of all potential candidates for 2012, Palin has the greatest opportunity to greatly improve her standings, especially given that expectations for her have been set so low.
Since 2008 Palin has not been visible to the public in a major, unfiltered way. A campaign will change that especially if it is managed efficiently and effectively. Team McCain blew it. They had a Wayne Gretzsky who was kept well away from the ice.
In the few weeks between the conventions and the VP Debate between Palin and Joe Biden, Sarah Palin was heavily attacked by the media, and was constantly being questioned about her qualifications. Thus, when the debate actually happened, people were surprised she wasn’t an idiot. A CNN Poll after the VP Debate found that 84% of people thought Sarah Palin did better than they expected. (And who were expectations set by?)
Ed Koch has very little in common with Sarah Palin in terms of political belief. But as an experienced political operator he has never underestimated her.
It was McCain who lost the presidential election, not Palin. Since that time she has established that she has enormous power to persuade people. A self-made woman who rose from PTA mother to Governor of Alaska, she is one of the few speakers in public life who can fill a stadium.
Unleashed in a campaign that marches to the beat of her own drum I would wager that only a fool would claim to predict that Fortune would never choose to bestow her smile on Sarah Palin……
