Although the polls have apparently settled into a pattern with Tories ahead in the mid thirties, Liberal Democrats around thirty and Labour one or two points below the Lib Dems the runes are still difficult to read. With figures like that no party would have an overall majority (i.e. 51% of MPs) – however, as I have mentioned before, these national samples might well camouflage regional variations and I am still sticking my neck out for a narrow Tory overall majority.
Nevertheless there is still much talk of a ”Hung Parliament” and that would raise some interesting constitutional issues. Remember that Gordon Brown is the Queen’s first minister and if there was no leader with enough MPs to guarantee a majority HM would be involved in the process of selecting a new PM although she would not be involved in any negotiations. Her power, however, rests in the fact that she could refuse a request for dissolution of Parliament (a new election) from a PM if she felt somebody else could form a viable administration.
UK Polling Report succinctly spells out the key constitutional facts
1) The prime minister remains the Prime Minister until he resigns. Even if he has lost his majority or is no longer the largest party, the PM remains PM until he resigns. It is his right, if he wishes, to wait until Parliament reassembles and to try and get approval for a Queen’s speech, even if he does not lead the largest party.
2) The Queen’s government must continue. When the Prime Minister resigns the Queen immediately invites someone else to replace him, in the knowledge that they will accept. The Palace will not allow there to be a period without government.
3) The Queen will not involve itself in anything that could be construed as being partisan, and does not personally involve herself in negotiations – though the Palace will closely follow the progress of negotiations.
4) Should the Prime Minister resign, the Queen will invite the person most capable of commanding a majority in the Commons (or at least, getting a Queen’s Speech and budget past the House). That will normally be the leader of the largest party, but it doesn’t have to be.
5) Should a Prime Minister loose a vote of confidence, or something regarded as a vote of confidence like the vote on the Queens Speech, they must resign or request dissolution. A dissolution remains the personal power of the monarch, and she may refuse if the Parliament has only just been elected and there is a chance of an alternative government.
For those who find it curious that the monarch still retains this tiny measure of authority remember that, although she has to always appear non partisan, Elizabeth II has met all her Prime Ministers once a week for nearly sixty years – she probably knows more about the mechanisms of UK government than anyone else alive……
