Don’t let’s crack open the champagne yet because there is many a slip twixt cup and lip but maybe we can allow ourselves a beer. Five polls out this weekend and if they represent a trend (and in this currently highly volatile and fearsomely unpredictable scenario that could be a monumentally gargantuan IF) then thing might be getting just a teeny weeny bit rosier for the Tories.
Mike Smithson at Political Betting reads the runes
Overall it’s been a good polling night for the Tories with the party well established in the mid-30s across almost the full range of surveys that we’ve seen.
Apart from MORI, which looks like a rogue, the Lib Dems will be delighted that they are still in there at around the 30 mark.
Labour will be quite concerned about those two surveys with them on 26% – well behind the blues with not many campaigning days left
However all these polls need to be taken with three significantly large grains of salt. Firstly remember that, despite the media fascination with messrs Brown, Cameron and Clegg, we are not voting for a President. The election is for just over six hundred Members of Parliament and the Prime Minister and the bulk of his or her Cabinet will themselves be MPs who have managed to persuade a majority of colleagues to support their programme.
Secondly the polls are usually a nationwide sample of opinion but, over the last few elections, there have been quite substantial variations between different regions of the UK so those percentages might well camouflage localised shifts in voting patterns.
Finally a well supported third party like the Liberal Democrats could suck up votes from either of the other two “main” parties at different rates in every constituency making the final tally even more difficult to predict.
Of course those complications did nothing to stop a whole tranche of Hot Air commentators waxing lyrical on the unconservativeness of Conservative Party leader David Cameron at the tail end of an Allah post. The overall impression appeared to be that Cameron was a closet Marxist surrender monkey whose intention was to stitch a hammer and sickle in the centre of the Union Jack and use taxpayers’ money to erect a mosque on every street. He was even blamed (admittedly indirectly) for Obama’s 2008 victory because we Brits were even deeper in the tank for His Styrofoamness than the Americans.
Now I admit that even though I have been a Tory activist since the 1950 election (I was ten years old and my activism consisted largely of singing a rude song about the Labour Party in the school playground) and that when I die you will find the name Maggie engraved on my heart it is possible that some guy sitting on his porch in Hanksville, Utah is better informed about the UK than me. But for what it’s worth I shall make my stand and declare that Cameron is offering a decent, conservative programme.
Reduce spending to cut the deficit within weeks of assuming power.
Cut some taxes
Allow groups to open their own schools, funded by govt but outside local authority control
Give Head Teachers greater powers to run their schools with minimal govt interference
Every police force will be run by a locally elected commissioner to reflect public concerns
Much tighter control of immigration
Ensure that our forces are effectively equipped and better looked after
Remain in the EU but be much less cooperative when our own interests are threatened
There is more and all of it is driven by the recognition that government needs a new paradigm.
The top-down model of power that exists in Britain today is completely out of date. The argument that has applied for well over a century – that in every area of life we need people at the centre to make sense of the world for us and take decisions on our behalf – has collapsed. We now live in an age when technology can put information that was previously held by a few into the hands of the many. This is an age of personal freedom and choice, when culture and debate are shaped by a multitude of voices. But politics has not caught up with this new age. Instead of giving people more power over their lives, we have a government intent on taking it away.
Good stuff – certainly good enough for Glenn Beck’s favourite British conservative Daniel Hannan – and what makes it even sweeter is that a key henchman of Obama, John Podesta, (Bill Clinton’s former chief of staff, head of Barack Obama’s Transition team and founder of the Center for American Progress, the most influential left wing think-tank in today’s Washington) has obviously been tasked with firing a warning shot in Cameron’s direction over his lack of enthusiasm for being told what to do by the Franco-German axis that currently dominates the EU.
Worryingly, under David Cameron’s leadership, the Conservative Party’s traditional Euro-skepticism has become more extreme. Consider, for example, his decision to have Conservative members leave the European People’s Party—the mainstream center-right grouping within the European Parliament that includes German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats and French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s UMP—to form a new parliamentary group with a maverick collection of racist, homophobic, and xenophobic members of the European Parliament. Beyond the obvious political symbolism this entails—it is hardly good for Britain’s prestige when its European parliamentarians sit with those who have argued the election of a black U.S. president hails the end of civilization—the decision also illustrates Cameron’s willingness to forgo political influence to placate extreme elements of his own party.
In other words he just cannot understand why the Tories are not having orgasms over belonging to a structure like the EU which currently is the epitome of a “top down model of power” run by shady deals in secret backrooms by groups of corrupt and self serving politicians and faceless bureaucrats – otherwise known as the Chicago style of government.
Sounds like Podesta sees a possible British Conservative administration as a kind of transatlantic group of tea partying rednecks getting all geared up to causing trouble at Brussels – and you know what? That’s exactly what we Tories (and many other Brits) want to happen.
Anything that annoys a left wing Obama mouthpiece like Podesta is just fine with me.
Watch this space for more messages from the bunker……
Thanks for sharing the improving news, AgedP. Have read your posts on Conservatives4Palin and FreeRepublic and enjoy your work!
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Likewise from me, AP!
Don’t count your chickens though. Cameron is indeed the best bet you have, much like Abbott is down here. The best bet, but not neccesarily the perfect conservative. Career pollies like Rudd and Brown will fight dirty to keep their jobs. The only way they can do this, despite the overwhelming proof that they are completely incompetent in the eyes of the majority, is to make their opponents look like damaged goods.
Lefties are the same all the world over.
We in what could well be termed the Anglo Saxon world are at an important time in our existence. The UK election is a part of that. I fear any result that gives New Labour and/or the Lib Dems power will be yet another nail in the coffin of the Anglo- Saxon governmental experiment which started with the Magna Carta and continued, amongst others, with the Constitution of the United States.
The UK is being subsumed in an alien concept, with a different understanding of democracy and law which will end freedom as we have understood it.
We are constantly being bombarded with lies and scientific half truths which seem to become absolute “givens” in any political discussion when they are nothing but unproven theories. Our way of life and our ostensible religion are being diluted and overwhelmed by immigration in what appears to be a deliberate policy.
No one of a different ethnicity or religion can be criticized without the criticizer being labelled racist.
At least in the USA there seems to be a group of right wing debunkers of government follies, as well as left, unfortunately in the UK it seems the only people trotted out by the BBC and others are smart arse comedians and other luvvies who constantly ridicule anything to the right of New Labour when trotted out on such programmes as Newsnight.
Can David Cameron and co stem the tide? I have great doubts, but I fear he is the only hope.